As I sit down to analyze this season’s American Athletic Conference football landscape, I can’t help but reflect on how unpredictable this conference truly is—much like the golf course described by that sharp St. Benedict Childhood Education Center student who said, “This course is unpredictable – short but tricky.” That phrase resonates deeply with AAC football: on paper, some teams look like clear favorites, but the reality often unfolds in surprising ways. Having followed the AAC for over a decade, I’ve seen powerhouse programs rise and fall, Cinderella stories emerge from nowhere, and key matchups that redefine entire seasons. This year, the conference welcomes some fresh faces while saying goodbye to others, making the 2023 season one of the most intriguing in recent memory. Personally, I’m excited to see how teams like UTSA and UAB adapt after moving from Conference USA—it’s not just about new rivalries, but about whether they can handle the week-in, week-out grind of a conference known for its parity.
Let’s start with the teams that have my attention. In the East, I’m keeping a close eye on the University of Central Florida Knights. They’re coming off an impressive 9-4 season, and with quarterback John Rhys Plumlee returning, I expect them to put up big numbers—maybe even surpass 40 points per game if their offense clicks. But here’s where it gets tricky: their defense gave up an average of 27.5 points last year, and if they don’t tighten up, they could easily drop games they should win. Then there’s the Memphis Tigers, a team I’ve always had a soft spot for. They’ve consistently been in the mix, but as any longtime fan knows, they have a habit of stumbling in critical moments. Last season, they finished 7-6, and while that’s respectable, I think they have the talent to do better—especially if Seth Henigan continues to develop at QB. Out West, Tulane is the defending champion, and I’ll admit I didn’t see their magical 12-2 run coming last year. That Cinderella story was one of my favorite moments of the season, but repeating that success won’t be easy. They lost some key players to the NFL, and as much as I admire Willie Fritz’s coaching, the target on their back is huge now.
Now, for the key matchups—this is where the season really comes alive. The one I’ve circled on my calendar is UCF versus Tulane on November 4th. Last year, these two played a classic that Tulane won 38-31, and I have a feeling this year’s game could decide the West division. Both teams have explosive offenses, but I give Tulane a slight edge because of their experienced offensive line. Another game that could shake things up is SMU taking on Memphis on October 21st. SMU’s air raid offense, which averaged over 300 passing yards per game in 2022, will test Memphis’ secondary in ways that might expose some weaknesses. I’ve watched this rivalry evolve over the years, and it often produces high-scoring thrillers—don’t be surprised if this one ends with a combined 80 points. Then there’s the under-the-radar clash between newcomers UTSA and UAB on September 30th. UTSA’s Frank Harris is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the nation, in my opinion, and if he stays healthy, he could torch UAB’s defense for 400 yards. These games aren’t just about wins and losses; they’re about momentum, and as that student wisely noted, it’s about taking it “shot by shot.”
Of course, no discussion of AAC football would be complete without addressing the elephant in the room: realignment. With Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF departing for the Big 12, the conference dynamics have shifted. I’ll be honest—it stings a bit to see traditional rivalries fade, but it also opens doors for programs like North Texas and Rice to step up. I remember watching Rice pull off an upset against Marshall last season, and if they can build on that, they might surprise a few people. On the other hand, I worry about teams like East Carolina, who have struggled to find consistency. They finished 5-7 last year, and while I’d love to see them break through, their schedule this season includes brutal back-to-back games against Tulane and SMU. It’s in moments like these that the “rehydrate, rest well” mentality becomes crucial—teams that manage fatigue and focus on one game at a time, without getting ahead of themselves, often outperform expectations.
Looking ahead, I predict the AAC will send at least two teams to bowl games, with Tulane and UCF leading the pack. But as any seasoned observer knows, surprises are inevitable. Maybe Memphis puts together a 10-win season, or perhaps South Florida pulls off a stunning turnaround after their 1-11 disappointment last year. Whatever happens, I’ll be watching with a mix of analytical curiosity and genuine passion. In the end, much like that young golfer preparing for the next day’s challenge, success in AAC football comes down to preparation, resilience, and the ability to adapt when the course gets tricky. So grab your playbook, stay hydrated, and get ready for a season that promises plenty of drama and unforgettable moments.
